Technical Scope: Markets Mixed Ahead of Key Developments

Technical Analysis Today: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Brent Crude & S&P 500 Outlook

Welcome to today’s edition of The Technical Scope, your twice-weekly guide to the evolving landscape of global markets through the lens of technical analysis. This report focuses on pure price action, highlighting key supply and demand zones, tracking momentum shifts, and identifying potential trading opportunities. Each edition covers major assets, offering a broad view of how currencies, commodities, and equities are performing. When market conditions present interesting setups, additional instruments will also be analyzed to provide deeper insight and actionable context.

Today’s edition presents our technical analysis of the following key assets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Brent Crude, and the S&P500. In addition, we highlight selected opportunities where technical conditions stand out, including an additional instrument USD/JPY.

EUR/USD

4-Hour Chart

The EUR/USD H4 chart shows a period of weak sideways consolidation following a recent relief rally. Price action has faced a clear rejection from the 1.1780 (61.8%) and 1.1750 (50.0%) Fibonacci retracement levels, which are currently acting as a firm overhead ceiling.

The momentum indicator reinforces this bearish outlook; while price attempted to hold higher levels, the green histograms have significantly diminished, signaling bullish exhaustion. Furthermore, a subtle bearish divergence has formed, suggesting that the upward move lacks the underlying strength to break through the current resistance. We expect a move lower as sellers regain control.

GBP/USD

4-Hour Chart

The Cable is currently locked in a sideways range, showing a lack of decisive direction in the short term. However, price is currently hovering just above a significant support zone near 1.3510.

While the momentum histograms remain in the red, their contraction suggests that selling pressure is beginning to wane at these lower levels. Given the proximity to this support, and generally the directionless trading we witness this week, a weak bullish bounce is expected off the 1.3510 mark. Traders should look for price to stabilize here before a corrective move back toward the middle of the recent range.

Gold

4-Hour Chart

Gold has encountered a recent resistance barrier near the $4,750 level. Recent attempts to sustain a breakout above this zone were met with swift rejection, as indicated by the long upper wicks on the candles.

The momentum indicator supports a reversal thesis, with green histograms rapidly retreating toward the zero line, marking a shift in sentiment. With the "ceiling" firmly established at 4750, the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside. We anticipate a move lower toward the $4,640 liquidity zone in the coming sessions.

Brent Crude

4-Hour Chart

Brent Crude recently underwent a significant structural shift after breaking below the key psychological and technical support level around $110.00. Price is currently in a "retest" phase, pulling back to verify this level as new resistance (the grey supply zone).

If bearish price action, such as an engulfing candle or a failure to close above 112.00, emerges during this retest, it would confirm the breakdown. In this scenario, we expect a bearish continuation that could see prices sliding back toward the $100.00 mark as the broader retracement resumes.

S&P 500

4-Hour Chart

The S&P 500 remains in a textbook uptrend, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, well-supported by the green super-trend-following indicator. Fundamental tailwinds from bullish Q1 earnings continue to provide a solid floor for the index.

Momentum remains in the green, indicating that buyers are still very much in the driver's seat, although we have seen weaker momentum in the last few sessions. Under these conditions, any short-term technical pullbacks are very much expected, but should be viewed as high-probability buying opportunities. The immediate objective remains a push into uncharted territory, with targets set at a new all-time high around the 7,500 point level.

USD/JPY

4-Hour Chart

Following a volatile recovery, USD/JPY is nearing a critical resistance zone around 158.00. Price action is showing signs of friction as it approaches the resistance zone, suggesting that the recent recovery may be overextended.

While the momentum indicator is currently positive, the recent price action doesn’t show strength, hinting at a potential peak in buying interest. We expect a short-term pullback lower toward the 157.00 level, as the pair looks to find a more sustainable base before attempting any further moves higher.